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United Asset Strategies Quarterly Letter: 4Q2024
Equity markets generated 2% returns in the 4th quarter, the 5th straight
quarter of positive returns, and closed out the year 25% higher. While there
were short periods of broad participation in 2024, as seen in Exhibit 1, the
major theme for the year continued into the 4th quarter, with returns
concentrated in a handful of Big-Tech names and the average stock and
bond markets down 1 to 3% for the quarter. The most recent head fake in
market breadth occurred in November, when stocks rallied post-election on
the removal of election-related uncertainty, with cyclical sectors and small
and mid-cap stocks further boosted by the increased likelihood of Trump’s
pro-business policies. That market strength faded in December, however,
given the lateral implications of these policies on inflation and the budget
deficit, as well as a more hawkish tone from the Fed on interest rates. As
such, treasuries sold off in the quarter alongside a steepening yield curve.