US Futures are higher ahead of data. At 9:15am, the market will get a read on December industrial production, with estimates of a 0.4% increase. At 10am, the NAHB will release the housing market index report for January, with expectations of a slight decline to 73. At 2pm, the Fed’s beige book is released and will provide further insight into the economic conditions. European shares are mostly lower as earnings weighed on shares. December eurozone inflation slowed to 1.4% yoy in December. Asian shares closed mixed. Core machinery orders in Japan rose 5.7% in November, for the second consecutive quarter of improvement.
US futures are higher to start a holiday-shortened week. US markets look to open strong as earnings season kicks into gear, despite fears of upcoming government shutdown. Lawmakers need to come to agreement on a funding bill by Friday to avoid a shutdown. According to some reports, there is potential for another short-term extension to fund the government through February 16. On the data front, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for January came in below expectations at 17.7, while analysts were looking for 19. There is no other economic data to be reported today. European shares are higher on earnings and easing inflation data in the U.K.. Asian shares closed mostly higher as technology shares gained.
US Futures pared gains and Treasury yields rose after data. The consumer price index was up 0.1% in December, 2.1% yoy. Core CPI rose 1.8%, slightly higher than the expected 1.7% increase. Retail sales were reported slightly lower than expected, rising 0.4% in December. The retail sales control group was reported up 0.3%, in-line with expectations, however, November was revised higher by 0.6% to 1.4%. At 10am, the market will get a look at business inventories from November. European shares are mostly higher as retail stocks outperform. Asian shares closed mostly higher despite mixed trade data out of China. China reported that imports rose less than expected, however, exports were stronger than expected.
US Futures remain higher, however, have pared gains after the ECB December minutes. The minutes from the ECB December meeting were viewed as hawkish as they hinted that forward guidance may have to be revisited in early 2018 if the economy continued to expand and inflation continues to move toward their target. The minutes release caused the USD to weaken relative to the Euro and bond yields rose. In US data, jobless claims for last week were up slightly to 261K. Additionally, December PPI was below expectations, falling 0.1% on headline and falling 0.1% ex-food and energy. European shares are mostly lower after hawkish ECB minutes, despite reports that euro area industrial production was up 1% in November. Asian shares closed mixed as corporate earnings weighed on shares in Japan.
US Futures are lower as Treasury yields rise. Global yields have been rising, but recent comments from China on the possible reduction or halting of purchases of US Treasuries is cause for concern for bond investors. On the data front, import/export prices were fairly flat in December with import prices rising 0.1% and export prices falling 0.1%. European shares are mostly lower with weakness in telecoms, while banks were higher. Asian shares closed mixed, however, shares in Hong Kong closed higher for the 12th day in a row.
US Futures are higher as the strong January momentum continues. On the data front, December small business optimism pulled-back from multi-year highs in December with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declining to 104.9 from 107.5 in November. At 10am the market will get a look at job openings and labor turnover from November. European shares are higher on the back of stronger November industrial production in Germany. Asian shares closed mostly higher with strength in technology shares as earnings season begins.
US Futures are lower after a strong first week of trading. Markets look to take a breather after strong gains in the first week of 2018 which saw the S&P 500 rise by 2.6% over four trading days. The is no economic data scheduled to be released today. European shares are mostly higher as consumer confidence in the euro zone reached a 17-year high. Automobile and material stocks led the gains. Asian shares closed higher across the board led by new highs in Japan’s Nikkei 225.
US Futures are higher ahead of December Fed minutes. At 2pm, the Fed will release the minutes from the December meeting in which the Fed raised rates by 0.25%. The market will be looking for any changes to the economic and inflation outlook to gauge future moves. At 10am the market will get data on construction spending from November and the December ISM manufacturing index. European shares are mostly higher with retail and technology shares leading higher. New financial reform from the EU will go into effect today, Europe’s Market in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II). MiFID II will increase transparency across financial markets and strengthen financial protection. Asian shares closed higher with the exception of Japan which is still closed for holiday. Technology and materials stocks led higher.
US Futures are higher to start the new year. US stocks look to extend the 2017 rally as futures rise despite geopolitical tensions. Over the weekend, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared his country a nuclear power and in Iran, tensions grew as protests become violent. Later this morning the market will get a read on the December Purchasing Managers’ Manufacturing index (PMI), with analysts looking for a move higher to 55. European shares are lower as automobile stocks fell on weaker car registration data. Asian shares closed mixed with China higher on better-than-expected manufacturing activity in December.
US Futures are higher on the last trading day of the year. Trading volume will be light and there is no economic data scheduled for release. Crude oil has rallied back to $60/barrel for the first time since June of 2015. European shares are mixed on light trading with energy and commodity names leading higher. Asian shares closed mixed as Chinese shares advanced, while Japanese shares lagged.
US futures are higher on light trading volume. In economic data, initial jobless claims were unchanged last week at 245k. The November trade deficit was larger than expected at 69.7B, with imports rising faster than exports. Later this morning, ISM will release the Chicago PMI for December which is expected to fall to 62.5. European shares are slightly lower, with no conviction in either direction. Asian shares closed mostly higher, while Japanese stocks lagged as energy and commodity names took a breather from recent gains.
US Futures are mixed ahead of data. At 10am the market will get a read on pending home sales in November as well as consumer confidence for December. European shares are mixed on light trading with energy shares leading higher. Asian shares closed mostly higher as energy shares gains after oil hit a new 2-year high.
US Futures are mixed after the House vote on a short-term spending bill. The House of Representatives voted on Thursday to fund the government through mid-January. In economic data, personal income in November rose 0.3%, slightly below expectations, however, spending rose 0.6%, above estimates. Preliminary November durable goods rose 1.3%, below expectations. At 10am, new home sales data will be released and the market will get a look at December consumer sentiment. European shares are lower on weakness in banks. Asian shares closed mostly higher on strength in commodities.
US Futures are higher after economic data. Jobless claims for the week ending 12/16 rose 20K to 245K, above expectations of 233K. The third look at third quarter GDP came in at 3.2%, slightly below estimates of 3.3%. The Philadelphia Fed index beat expectations in December at 26.2. European shares have reversed earlier losses and are mostly higher with most sectors advancing. Asian shares closed mixed. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged as they see the economy expanding moderately.
US Futures are higher after the Senate passed the tax bill. The bill will now move back to the House to pass for a second time after slight adjustments had to be made. Later this morning the market will get a look at November existing home sales as well as crude inventories from last week. European shares are mostly lower as household goods lagged due to Steinhoff International’s continued plunge on accounting irregularities. Asian stocks closed mixed as the Japanese Nikkei and the Australian ASX 200 managed to close positive.
US Futures are mostly higher as Congress sets to vote on the tax bill. The House could vote as early as today, with a Senate vote to follow in hopes to get the final plan to the President by Thursday. In economic data, housing starts rose by a 3.3% annualized rate in November, while permits fell 1.4%. Single-family housing units is now at a 10-year high. European shares are mostly lower, however, travel and leisure stocks edged higher. Asian shares closed mostly higher with financial stocks strong, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed lower.
US Futures are higher over optimism of proposed U.S. tax cuts. Republicans released their final tax cut proposal late on Friday and believe that the bill will have enough votes to pass this week. At 10am, the market will get a reading on homebuilder confidence in December with the expectation of no change from November. European stocks are being led higher by technology stocks. Asian stocks closed mostly higher, led by Japanese stocks, as Japan’s November exports rose 16.2%.
US futures are higher despite new questions over the tax plan. Questions of the support of Republican senators for the tax bill have resurfaced as in the last 24 hours, Senators Rubio, Corker, Lee, Flake and Collins have all stated that they are undecided on their vote. The December Empire Manufacturing Survey was reported in-line with estimates at 18. November Industrial Production rose 0.2%, slightly below estimates for a 0.3% increase. European shares are mixed as retail stocks lag. Asian stocks closed mostly lower with technology shares lagging.
US Futures are higher after the Fed raised rates by 25 bps. Along with the rate increase, the Fed upgraded the economic outlook for next year. In economic data, retail sales rose 0.8% in November, ahead of analyst estimates. Initial jobless claims were 225K last week, below expectations of 239K. Later this morning the market will get an early reading on December PMI and business inventories for October. European shares are lower after the ECB and BOE held rates steady. ECB’s Governing Council stated that they expect to keep rates at these levels for “an extended period of time” and said they see inflation at 1.4% in 2018. Asian shares closed lower after the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the People’s Bank of China raised rates.
US Futures are higher ahead of the Fed decision due out at 2pm. Markets have already priced in a 25bps rise in the federal funds rate, however, attention will be payed to the dot plot for a potential change in the expectation of future rates. In political news, democratic Senate candidate Doug Jones beat republican candidate Roy Moore in the Alabama special election. The surprising victory will narrow the GOP Senate majority to 51-49 next year. In economic news, November inflation data was reported inline with expectations as CPI rose 0.4% m/m and 2.2% y/y. European shares are mixed with retail stocks outperforming. Asian shares closed mostly higher with strength in energy as technology shares lagged.
US Futures are slightly higher as the Fed begins a 2-day policy meeting. At the conclusion of the 2-day meeting, the Fed will announce any monetary policy changes at 2pm on Wednesday. In economic data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that producer prices rose more than expected in November, rising by 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y. PPI ex-food and energy was also slightly higher than expectations at 0.3% m/m. European shares are higher as inflation rises. Headline inflation rose to 3.1% y/y in the UK ahead of the BOE and ECB monetary policy meetings on Thursday. Asian shares closed mostly lower, however, energy shares traded higher as Brent crude prices rose to the highest level since 2015.
US futures have pared gains after report of an explosion in NYC. A device explosion near a Times Square subway station left the purported suspect injured with no other reported injuries. This week will be a big week for monetary policy with several central banks expected to make announcements. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise the federal funds rate for the third time this year by 25 basis points to a range of 1.25 to 1.5%. Thursday will see key monetary policy updates from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. In economic data, October’s JOLTS report will be released at 10am. The market is expecting job openings to increase to 6.1M openings in October. Much anticipated Bitcoin futures began trading on Sunday on the CBOE, already triggering 2 trading halts due to 20+% surge in the first 24 hours of trading. European shares are mixed with banks and materials stock leading to the upside. Asian shares closed higher with casino stocks and banks leading the way higher.
US futures are higher this morning on the back of a better than expected government jobs report. According to the Bureau of Labor, the US added 228,000 jobs last month compared to estimates of 200,000 with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. On the political front, Congress was able to pass a short term funding bill last night to avoid a government shutdown. Markets in Asia closed higher led by the Nikkei on the back of a weaker yen and better than expected trade data out of China. European markets are trading higher led by the banks after regulators agreed on a deal which is part of the Basel III capital levels. Markets in Europe are also getting a boost from Brexit talks after a few key issues were agreed upon. Later today, we will get data for consumer sentiment and wholesale trade.
US futures are mixed after early morning gains fade. In a deviation from recent days, the DJIA and S&P500 are lower, while the Nasdaq is higher. Weekly jobless claims fell by 2k to 236k, lower than expected, for the week ending 12/2. European shares are mostly lower as basic materials lag. Asian shares closed mixed as the Japanese Nikkei bounced back from yesterday’s rout.
US futures are lower as global stocks decline. In the US, ADP reported private payrolls in November rose by 190K, slightly above estimates. Third quarter non-farm productivity rose slightly less than expected to 3% q/q, while unit labor costs declined by 0.2%. The decline in unit labor costs was a surprise as the market was expecting a rise of 0.3% for the quarter. European shares are lower, led by auto, bank and technology shares. Asian shares closed lower with Japan’s NIKKEI falling nearly 2%.
US futures are higher after yesterday’s mixed session. Yesterday, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s travel ban from 6 mostly-Muslim countries can take effect immediately. In economic data, the October trade deficit increased more than expected to $48.7B. At 10:00am, the Institute for Supply Management will report their November non-manufacturing index update. European shares are mixed as Brexit discussions stall due to Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party rejecting a special status for Northern Ireland upon the UK split. Asian shares closed mostly lower as technology stocks lagged.
US futures are sharply higher this morning after the Senate passed their version of the tax bill early Saturday morning. The vote came out 51-49 in favor of the tax bill which will now need to be a joint bill between the Senate and the House. The progress in the tax reform has helped reverse the losses Friday which came after news that Michael Flynn, a member of Trump’s election team, pleaded guilty to lying to federal investigators. Markets in Europe are trading higher on the back of the Senate’s tax bill vote while Asian markets closed mostly lower.
US futures are mixed as Senate Republicans delayed a vote on the tax bill. Concerns about the fiscal “trigger” caused lawmakers to make changes to the bill and required more time to complete, forcing a delay in the vote. In Bitcoin news, the CFTC has approved futures trading on Bitcoin and will begin trading on GLOBEX on December 18th of this year and later be available by the CBOE. While Bitcoin is trading higher on this news, speculation of increased regulation is expected due to broader acceptance by the mainstream investment community. On the economic front, November PMI, ISM and October construction spending are due out later this morning. European shares are mostly lower as technology shares lag. Asian shares closed mixed with the Japanese NIKKEI leading to the upside.
US futures are higher as technology shares rebound. In economic data, weekly jobless claims fell by 2k to 238K last week. Personal income and spending rose in October by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. At 9:45am, the Institute for Supply Management will update business conditions in the Chicago area with the release of November’s Chicago PMI. European shares are higher with telecom stocks leading the way. Asian shares closed mostly lower as technology shares followed the lead of US stocks. China shares were also lower despite a better than expected manufacturing PMI report.
US futures are mixed ahead of Fed speakers. NY Fed President William Dudley is speaking this morning at Rutgers University, while Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking on the economy at 10am in Washington. A second look at Q3 GDP was in line with forecast at 3.3% annually. At 10:30am the EIA will release the latest weekly oil inventories which could move oil prices. European shares are mostly higher, with most sectors in the green. Asian shares closed mixed with technology shares rebounding.
US futures are higher ahead of September home price data and a read on November consumer confidence. The October Trade deficit increased to $68.3 B, above estimates of a deficit of $64.8 B. The September Case-Shiller home price index rose in line with forecasts at 6.2% yoy. At 10:00am the market will get a reading on November consumer confidence, with estimates at 124.5. European shares are higher after the results of the BOE’s bank stress tests showed that no banks are in need of raising capital. Asian shares closed mixed with weakness in exporting companies.
US futures are flat after a slight advance in Friday’s abbreviated session. US markets closed slightly higher on Friday, on low volume trading. At 10am, October new home sales will be released with expectations for a decline from September’s surge. European shares have turned negative with technology shares leading to the downside. The euro climbed to a 2-month high as business confidence in Germany strengthened. Asian shares closed mostly lower as technology shares lagged.
US futures are slightly higher as jobless claims remain low. The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 18th were 239K, in line with forecasts. The preliminary October durable goods order fell by 1.2%, below expectations, however, ex-transportation rose 0.4%. European shares are mostly higher as UK budget talks are in the spotlight as Brexit talks continue. Asian shares closed higher as China’s Hang Seng closed above 30,000, making a multi-year high.
US futures are higher as global stocks rally. US futures have been gaining traction throughout the morning. Fed Chair Janet Yellen confirmed that she will resign from the board of governors in February when Jerome Powell becomes the new Fed Chair. With Yellen leaving, four of the seven seats will need to be filled, giving President Trump a strong influence on re-shaping the central bank. At 10am the market will get information on existing home sales for October, with expectations for another month of growth. European shares are higher despite political uncertainty in Germany. Weeks of talks to form a new government have stalled, leading to discussions of possibly holding new elections. Asian shares closed higher. China’s Tencent Holdings overtook Facebook as the world’s fifth largest company by market cap after a strong November move higher.
US futures have turned positive to kick-off a holiday shortened trading week. For the second week in a row, the Dow and S&P recorder a small weekly loss. Treasury yields are slightly higher, while gold and crude oil are lower. European shares are being led higher by auto and health care stocks, while materials stocks lagged. Asian shares closed mixed as China advanced and Japan’s NIKKEI pulled back from recent all-time highs.
US futures are flat after October housing data. October housing starts rose 13.7% last month to an annualized rate of 1.29M, while building permits were up 5.9% to an annualized rate of 1.3M. European shares were mixed after ECG President Mario Draghi said that they can remain patient when normalizing policy because inflation remains subdued. Asian shares closed mixed with strength in Tesla suppliers in Taiwan after Tesla introduced their new electric Semi tractor trailer and surprise electric roadster.
US futures rise as the House of Representatives moves closer to a tax reform bill vote. The House is expected to vote on a tax bill this week and the GOP remains optimistic that the bill can pass. Weekly jobless claims rose to 249K, but continuing claims fell to 1.86M. Import prices rose 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y in October. The Philadelphia Fed Business outlook Survey came in lower than expected at 22.7 for November. At 9:15am, the market will get a read on October industrial production and at 10am, housing market index. The 2yr Treasury rose to 1.7%, the highest level in nearly 10 years, as the yield curve continues to flatten. European shares are higher as materials stocks rebound. Asian shares were led higher as Japan bounced back with a 1.5% gain in the Nikkei 225.
US futures are lower as investors weigh the Senate version of the tax bill. Investors seemed cautious as details of the Senate’s tax plan were revealed over concerns that the bill may not have enough support. In economic data, October consumer prices rose by 0.1% and 2.0% yoy, both in line with estimates. October retail sales rose 0.2%, above expectations of 0.1%. The NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey was weaker than expected in November at 19.4. European shares are lower, led by energy and materials stocks. Asian shares closed lower, led by energy shares. Japanese Q3 GDP came in better than expected, growing at a 1.4% annual rate.
US futures are lower as producer prices rise. The Labor Department reported that producer prices rose 0.4% in October and 2.8% yoy, while core PPI was up 0.2% in October and 2.3% yoy. The latest inflation data confirms a steady rise in wholesale prices. The NFIB reported that small business confidence rose to 103.8 in October from 103 in September. European shares are mostly lower despite stronger than expected GDP numbers out of Germany. German Q3 GDP rose 0.8% from 0.6% in Q2. Asian shares closed mostly lower on weaken than expected data out of China. Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales were all weaker than forecast.
Reporting period highlights summary thus far:
· Economic growth across the globe has been solid, and there is a high correlation between GDP growth and corporate revenue growth. While U.S.-oriented companies are meeting expectations, companies with international exposure are beating expectations.
· The positive earnings surprise overall stands at roughly 6%, and 70% of companies are beating estimates. The average over the past few years is 68% of companies beating by 4.7% on average.
· Expectations are for revenues, earnings, and EPS growth of 5.5%, 7.9%, and 9.1%, respectively. EPS is on pace for 9.7%, assuming the current beat rate for the remainder of the season. This is down from the 2Q final growth rate of 12%.
· Companies beating on both the top- and bottom-lines have outperformed by 0.9%, while those missing on both have lagged by -2.0%. This compares to +2% and -3% historically. There have been several stocks down double-digit on disappointing earnings.
US futures are lower after the market records its first weekly loss in 2 months. Volatility picked up slightly last week and the S&P recorded a small weekly loss. Earnings season is slowing down with 91% of the S&P 500 having already reported for Q3 2017. European shares are lower as financial stocks lag. Asian stocks closed mixed, with Japanese stocks lagging after a record run.
The Senate formally announced its version of a tax reform bill last night. While there are a number of variances in the Senate bill relative to the recently-announced House version, the most notable differences are:
(1) the Senate’s delaying of the corporate tax rate reduction until 2019 (which rattled investors yesterday),
(2) the total exclusion of the state and local tax deduction (vs. $10K cap in House bill); and
(3) doubling the estate tax threshold to $11MM (House bill phases out estate tax entirely over time).
Click here for the key provisions of the 253-page Senate bill titled “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.”
US stock and bond futures are lower for the second day. Both stocks and bonds fell yesterday and are sliding today as investors digest earnings, taxes and inflation. At 10am we will get a preliminary read on November consumer sentiment with estimates at 100.00. European shares are mostly lower with most sectors lower as investors take profits. Asian shares closed mostly lower with the Nikkei 225 falling for a second day after a record run. China announced plans to ease restrictions on foreign ownership of Chinese financial companies. The new rules would allow foreign ownership up to 51%.
In an effort to keep you up to date on the new House tax plan released by Republicans, we’ve outlined some key provisions here.
There are still MANY details to be worked out, the process is going to be painful and key points will likely change over time.
for answers to your questions how the new tax plan will affect you and your business.
US Futures are lower after setting fresh record highs on Wednesday. Consumer discretionary shares are lower on weaker earnings from retailers. Jobless claims for last week were slightly higher than expected at 239k, with continuing claims also higher than forecast. European shares are being led lower by material stocks on earnings news. Also in Europe, Brexit talks have resumed with hopes of progress by year-end. Asian shares closed mixed as China inflation data was slightly higher than expected.
The Social Security Administration just announced its annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2018.
United Asset Strategies believe this is important to share since 66 million Americans will see an increase in their monthly Social Security and Supplemental Security Income next year.
The purpose of the COLA is to ensure that the purchasing power of Social Security will not be eroded by inflation.
This is very welcome news since Social Security did not have an increase in 2016 and only a 0.3% increase in 2017.
Key provisions are listed below:
For answers to your Social Security questions and to learn more about the Social Security Planning United Asset Strategies offers,
US Futures are flat on the anniversary of President Trump’s election. One year ago today we learned that Trump was to be the next President of the United States and measures of market volatility soared. Here we stand one year later and US markets are significantly higher and volatility is near record lows. MBA mortgage applications were flat week-over-week, with 1% rise in purchases being offset by the 1% fall in refinances. European shares are mixed, with banking stocks underperforming over concerns for delays in US tax reform. Asian shares closed mixed as China’s October trade data showed weaker than expected exports.
US Futures are little changed after fresh, record highs on Monday. At 10am, the market will get a look at job openings from September when the latest JOLTS report is released. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is expected to speak at the Paul H. Douglas Award for ethics in government this afternoon in Washington. European shares are mostly lower with Technology shares underperforming and Energy shares outperforming. Asian shares closed mostly higher led by the Nikkei 225 reaching a 26-year high.
US Futures are flat as President visits Asia. President Trump has been making headlines on his Asia trip, commenting that the US and Japan need to work together to fix trade imbalances. Brent crude oil futures have been rising as news of a corruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia led to fears of destabilization in the region. In deal news, Broadcom announced an unsolicited bid to buy Qualcomm, which would be the largest technology deal in history. European shares are mixed with basic materials outperforming and telecom stocks lagging. Asian shares closed mixed while President Trump visited the region. Energy stocks were higher on strength in oil prices.